Grey Series - Part 6: Coronavirus - a systemic view
Fortunately, simulation models are currently providing the basis for understanding the potential spread of global corona infections and deaths. Media and politics take up the representations of simulation curves and point out the necessity of flattening the bell curve and shifting the spread forwards on the time axis.
Originally intended only as a tool for use by experts, we have published on KNOW-WHY.net a System Dynamics model to reproduce these curves. With each aspect of this virus we have then extended the model to discover that the event space is, or must be, potentially larger than currently discussed.
Thus, there are scenarios where it takes almost 2 years before the virus disappears at the greatest possible social distance - subject to the prior development of vaccines and cures. In a qualitative model, we have then explored factors that call into question the economic and social viability of maintaining social isolation for such a long time. This model also explores the possibility of isolating and protecting only vulnerable groups of people by all means, and letting the rest of the population survive the disease relatively quickly - a scenario that we would not have agreed to two weeks ago before a more precise simulation of developments.
While the economy could theoretically hold out longer through globally concerted money creation, we do not believe that social chaos will be eliminated. Therefore, there is a certain probability that we will have to shift to the isolation of a few people.
The "Grey Series": with the "grey series" we offer the public an attractive, readable format that summarizes insights form our research work and the action to be taken. Our 'grey series' based on the term 'grey literature'.
While overly complicated models can hardly do justice to the complexity of local, social relationships, many rough models have not yet been adapted to the particularities of the COVID-19 virus. We have now adapted our rough model and hereby present the possible (!) findings from this. In addition, we offer a qualitative cause-and-effect model to reflect further implications.