The D3 EE model / Publication of the Federal Environmental Agency of Germany
Research Report: Development of a quantitative model "Sustainable Germany" - Part 3: The D3 EE Model
Authors: Kai Neumann and Franc Grimm (Consideo GmbH), Hans Diefenbacher (Forschungsstätte der Evangelischen Studiengemeinschaft FEST, Heidelberg), Martin Hirschnitz-Garbers and Susanne Langsdorf (Ecologic Institut, Berlin), Michael Schipperges (sociodimensions GmbH, Heidelberg) and Daniel Weiss (adelphi research)
Published by the Federal Environmental Agency of Germany (UBA Texte 97 / 2018)
This report describes the D3 EE model that allows for scenarios on paths of energy transition using different technologies (onshore/offshore wind energy, photovoltaic, battery, power to gas/liquid, energy grid) and considering their need for resources with a recycling of older facilities starting 1990 and running on a daily basis until 2050 looking at Germany divided by a its north and south. The objective of the model is less an exact forecast that would have to include the European energy market and rather specific technologies.
The results from three scenarios: the current path will lead to an equilibrium far below 100 percent as the repowering of existing facilities will match the newly added capacities in any scenario with a constant rate of new facilities. Crucial in all scenarios reaching 100 percent renewable electricity seems to be the availability of power to liquid/gas capacities. The third scenario on the least resource consumption of possible paths to renewable energy already shows with only rough data that any path should be developed as fast as possible as the resource use for conventional energy seems to outweigh any need of resources from renewables.
For the economical evaluation of the transition towards renewable energy is not based on markets but instead compares the margin costs of conventional sources for electric energy with the investments into renewables. It shows that while the price for electricity would certainly rise the overall costs for energy including the mobility sector would be lower. From an economical point of view the outcome of the transition would be extremely positive as the investments into renewables would foster the domestic economy to a larger part while little money would return through exports from countries we have to pay for the delivery of fossil resources for conventional energy.
The model can now be used to extended scenarios, e.g. on possible developments of technology, additional demands for electricity from other fields etc..
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