The D3 simulation results / Publication of the Federal Environmental Agency of Germany

Research Report: Development of a quantitative model "Sustainable Germany" - Part 2: The D3 simulation results

Authors: Kai Neumann and Franc Grimm (Consideo GmbH), Hans Diefenbacher (Forschungsstätte der Evangelischen Studiengemeinschaft FEST, Heidelberg), Martin Hirschnitz-Garbers and Susanne Langsdorf (Ecologic Institut, Berlin), Michael Schipperges (sociodimensions GmbH, Heidelberg) and Daniel Weiss (adelphi research)

Published by the Federal Environmental Agency of Germany (UBA Texte 96 / 2018)


The project showed that the simulation of social systems with system dynamics is feasible. To endogenously simulate the behavior of humans it is crucial to translate human motivation into factors and formula. Provided that the change of behavior is emotionally effective an exponential transition through spillover effects between different areas (nutrition, mobility, housing, clothing, etc.) for each social milieu as well as spillover effects between the social milieus seems possible. The effects on the environment, climate, resources, welfare and happiness would be beneficial. The effects on the economy could after a medium term increase become stable on today’s level.

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