Consideo White Papers, Articles etc.
Development of an Integrated Assessment Model: Sustainable Development in Germany
Authors: Kai Neumann, Franc Grimm, Prof. Harald Heinrichs
Published by Umweltbundesamt (Federal Environment Agency of Germany)
Abstract: Sustainability has a social, economical and ecological dimension. These dimensions are highly interconnected and interdependent. Despite tremendous knowledge about the different fields and the severe pressure from social, increasingly economic and above all ecological developments there is little, if any progress on our way to a sustainable society. To get a deeper understanding of the underlying reasons this work is based on a systemic, explorative, qualitative cause and effect model build together with a series of experts and stakeholders from different fields. From its analysis stem a number of crucial insights: Any player could address Biopsychological motives of human behavior in order to foster feedback loops that could form a transformation towards more sustainability. Currently, these feedback loops describe a lock-in situation that prevents any change. An additional measure could be an intelligent scoring system to address the human motives. Also effective would be to make the basic background knowledge common as a basis for a public vision to manifest the change. Until change has developed its momentum any player should provide basic background knowledge, a vision, a way to score the alternative that is provided and hence make change emotionally effective.
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Here you will find the publication in german: UBA-Text 74/2014
Report 6602, February 2014
Impact assessment of global megatrends - two case studies connecting global megatrends to regional topics
Authors: Ullrich Lorenz and Hördur Haraldsson
Published by SWEDISH ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
Abstract: This report gives an overview how global megatrends can influence topics on regional and local level. The report demonstrates how qualitative modelling and system thinking approach can be applied to analyse the possible impact of global megatrends to the regional topic of resource scarcity, demonstrated in two case studies. In the first case study, a generic qualitative model is developed to explain a general pattern of resource scarcity on a EU regional scale. Typical entry points of political measures are shown as well as how the eleven global megatrends – described by the European Environment Agency – can be connected to such a model. Potentially, some of the global megatrends will increase the problem of resource scarcity while others will put relieve on the challenge. A third group of megatrends has apparently now impact on the resource scarcity pattern. In the same way, the possible impact of the policy measure can be compared. In the second case study, a qualitative model is built to explain the impact of the global megatrends upon the Swedish environmental goals. The case study illustrates how the different scales: local, EU regional and the global scale connect through the megatrends, and how they impact the possibility of fulfilling the Swedish environmental goals. In conclusion, we are able to demonstrate that the global megatrends put in nearly all cases more burden to environmental challenges respectively the environmental goals. The potential impact of global megatrends differs in time and spatial scale. Generally, the methodology of qualitative modelling has proven to be a powerful approach to assess the potential impact of global megatrends to regional or concrete topics as well as to assess the potential impact of policy measures in terms of goal reaching.
Here you will find the publication in english: SWEDISH ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY REPORT 6602
Reflecting on Comlex Challenges through Qualitative Modeling using the iMODELER (29-43) / Kai Neumann
Abstract: As our challenges become more and more complex and we as a result face mental boundaries, we need tools that help us to grasp the dynamic interconnections of a large number of factors. While quantitative modeling approaches can only be used by modeling experts, qualitative modeling—which is much easier to apply—is not very well known. Consideo has come up with an advanced yet surprisingly easy qualitative modeling approach and method with its software iMODELER. Here, different kinds of (rough) weighting of interconnections between factors are done first, followed by the analysis of the model through so-called insight matrices, making it possible to identify the short, medium and long-term importance of the factors involved and thus, for example, compare measures, risks and goals. The model will not be useful, however, unless it features factors that are crucial. A methodology devised to help you determine what the crucial factors are is the easy-to-apply KNOW WHY Method. Next to this I will discuss the important difference between explorative and descriptive modeling and name some practical and psychological obstacles that keep us from making the effort to model. It is my conviction that by modeling we would make it possible for a new culture of increased transparency—through better planning, decision-making and communication—to emerge.
Here you will find the article: E:CO Issue Vol. 16 No. 2 2014
KNOW-WHY Thinking as a New Approach to Systems Thinking (81-93) / Kai Neumann
Abstract: This paper is on the background of so-called KNOW WHY Thinking—a systemic approach that can be used to reflect on all kinds of complex situations. The approach is based on evolutionary logic, according to which everything in the world, whether it is a product, an organization, a project or an individual needs to both adapt and develop in order to be successful. It needs to adapt to its environment and surrounding circumstances: this is referred to as its need for integration. It also needs to develop with the changing environment and in many cases also beat out the competition: this is referred to its need for development. While many systems theories describe how certain systems work, this approach describes why they work and also why other systems do not. This paper provides a range of examples illustrating this. One very useful way of applying this mode of reflection is using it to explain the motivation of human behavior. Humans either act based on rationality and discipline, or they are motivated by feelings. All our feelings can be categorized into two groups: they either help us to integrate into our environment or to develop so that we can adapt to changes or compete with others. No human emotion exists that cannot be categorized into one of these two groups: we follow evolutionary logic. Reflecting on human behavior in this way allows us to understand other—in many cases contradictory—approaches that explain human motivation. Both the KNOW WHY of success (of systems) and the KNOW WHY of human behavior can be used to reflect on our daily challenges. Together with a cause and effect modeling tool, all of the ideas and principles behind KNOW WHY can be applied as the so-called KNOW WHY Method. This method helps you to include the crucial factors within a model. Not only is this approach very powerful—it is easy to use, and therefore has the potential of being applied by many more people than other, rather complicated and abstract systems approaches are.
Here you will find the article: E:CO Issue Vol. 15 No. 3 2013
Tipps and Tricks and Background of Explorative Qualitative Modeling
Here you will find some useful tipps and some background information on modeling, the insight matrix and the KNOW WHY method.
How to master complex projects
Your projects will fail if you do not consider the crucial factors or if you misinterpret their interrelationships. Actually there is no other reason for a project to fail. This gratis e-book explains with a concrete example how we can cope with the complexity of a project, how we can think of the crucial factors using the KNOW-WHY-method, and how we can run scenarios on the different possible courses a project might take using the CONSIDEO PROCESS MODELER and the Monte-Carlo-simulation. It shows how we can grasp the impacts of change of specification, the dynamics of motivation, the possible chain of reactions due to the outage of resources, etc.. This book on systemic project management even includes the theory of constraints (ToC) from Goldratt. The book not only emphasizes the new way of thinking and the use of a tool but also the management of a project team, the perception of people and the communication.
Flyer classic MODELER
Our customers agree that the classic MODELER is still better than its alleged competitors. You can still download a free testversion (see Buy/Test) or view the flyer here: