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Material Efficiency and Global Pathways towards 100% Renewable Energy Systems – System Dynamics Findings on Potential and Constraints

After we had already investigated the global transformation towards renewable energies with the GEE(R) model (Grey Series - Part 1: Renewable Energy - It Could Be Done), we took another look at the global energy transition with the ICARE model for the Federal Environment Agency and explored the role of resources even more. 

Together with Ecologic Institute, we first qualitatively investigated the nexus between climate protection and resource conservation, and then quantitatively used simulation models to look not only at the extent to which sufficient raw materials are available for the global expansion of renewable energies, but also at the effects of resource efficiency, an increased choice of photovoltaics, the import of synthetic fuels, or the substitution of greenhouse gas intensive steel and concrete with biotic raw materials.

 

Our findings from the project on food security in African countries raise some general criticism of the type of research (faculty silo thinking), the design of development aid (choice of services and practices by own corporations) and the behaviour of multinational corporations (safeguarding natural resources while shifting the creation of value and simultaneously
returning inferior food products).

No doubt, the future belongs to the bio-economy, and regions with appropriate growth conditions must go their own, in many countries labour-intensive yet productive way, with the primacy of their own, stateprotected interests and emancipated from international influence. Challenging!

Originally intended only as a tool for use by experts, we have published on KNOW-WHY.net a System Dynamics model to reproduce the simulation curves actually discussed in the public. With each aspect of this virus we have then extended the model to discover that the event space is, or must be, potentially larger than currently discussed.

Guidance - Part 5: Systemic Management and Organizational Development featuring the KNOW-WHY Method

Identifying and Assessing Interactions between International Climate and Resource Policy

German-Danish youth designs a common future by using the iMODELER

About 2.400 pupils are designing a sustainable future by using the iMODELER

Research Report: Development of a quantitative model "Sustainable Germany"

Research Report: The simulation of potential transitions towards sustainability and their effects. The report also covers insights on the possibilities and limitations of the simulation of social systems.

Research Report:  The report describes an additional simulation model that looks more into the details of the use of renewable energy and its implications for the use of resources as well as its economic effects

Research Report: The report describes a separate model that can be used as a simulation game to allow e.g. pupils to play the roles of citizens, politicians, or business-people and experience their interdependencies through the lock-in effect and the spillover effects as they are explained in part 2 of the reports.

Participatory, explorative, qualitative modeling: application of the iMODELER software to assess trade-offs among the SDGs / Authors: Kai Neumann, Carl Anderson, and Manfred Denich

Guidance - Part 1: Systemic Strategy Development and Risk Analysis (incl. Strategy Maps and SWOT Analysis)

Guidance - Part 3 (Quantitative Optimization and Risk Analysis of Projects and Processes)